The connection economy
Dating Apps Are Shrinking. The Demand for Connection Isn't.
After a decade of growth, the dating app market has started to contract. The largest players are losing paying users, and industry revenue declined in 2025 for the first time. Yet loneliness is widespread and demand for connection remains high. This article looks at what the numbers say, and at where growth is moving: towards intent, compatibility and friendship.
The end of the swipe boom
For the past decade, dating apps have been one of the great consumer internet success stories. They changed how people meet. In the US, research from Stanford found that by 2017 about 39% of heterosexual couples had met online, up from 22% in 2009 [1]. Pew Research found that three in ten US adults have used a dating site or app, including 53% of adults under 30 [2].
But the growth phase appears to be over.
According to Business of Apps, which aggregates market data, the global dating app market generated just over $6 billion in revenue in 2025, its first year of decline, with Match Group accounting for about $3.3 billion [3]. The same source estimates that more than 350 million people use dating apps worldwide, but only about 23 million pay [3].
These are aggregator estimates rather than audited figures, but the direction is confirmed by the companies themselves.
What the market leaders report
Match Group
Match Group, which owns Tinder, Hinge and other brands, reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $853 million, down 1% year on year, with 13.3 million payers, a 6% decline [4]. Revenue per payer rose 6% to $21.13, so the company is earning more from each paying user, but it has fewer of them [4].
Within the portfolio, the picture is split. Tinder's monthly active users fell 9% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to TechCrunch [5]. Hinge, by contrast, grew revenue 22% year on year in Q2 2026, with global monthly active users up 13%, and Match expects it to reach $1 billion in revenue in 2027 [4].
Bumble
Bumble's decline has been steeper. For full-year 2025 it reported revenue of $965.7 million, down 9.9%, with paying users down 11.5% to 3.7 million [6]. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue fell 15.2% to $210.5 million, and paying users dropped 16.4% to 3.2 million [7].
Reading the signals
Three patterns stand out in the data.
1. Fewer people are willing to pay for swiping
Across both leading companies, the number of paying users is falling [4][6][7]. When only around 23 million of 350 million users pay [3], and even that number is shrinking, the model of charging for more swipes, more visibility and more matches is under pressure.
2. Intent-led products are growing
Hinge's growth stands in sharp contrast to the wider market [4]. Its positioning emphasises relationships over casual swiping, with profiles built around prompts and conversation starters rather than photos alone. The lesson isn't that one brand is doing marketing well. It's that users are moving towards products that promise meaningful outcomes rather than endless browsing.
3. Friendship is emerging as a category
Bumble relaunched its friendship product, Bumble BFF, in the US in September 2025. The company says it hasn't yet generated revenue and excludes it from its key operating metrics [6]. But usage is growing: TechCrunch reported that group joins on BFF nearly doubled between December 2025 and March 2026 [8].
That matters because friendship sits at the centre of the loneliness problem. The WHO estimates that 1 in 6 people worldwide is affected by loneliness [9], and the US Surgeon General's advisory found that time spent in person with friends fell from about 60 minutes a day in 2003 to 20 minutes in 2020 [10]. Most people who feel lonely aren't short of romantic options. They're short of everyday companionship and belonging.
Why the old model is struggling
Several factors help explain the slowdown.
Choice overload. Unlimited options can make people less likely to commit to any of them. Swiping at volume produces many matches but few conversations and even fewer meetings.
Misaligned incentives. A business that earns more when users stay single and keep paying for premium features has a structural tension with its users' goal, which is often to find someone and leave.
Fatigue and trust. Repeated low-quality interactions, ghosting and safety concerns wear users down, particularly women.
A narrow definition of connection. Most apps are built around romance. But the unmet need is broader: friendship, community, shared interests and support.
Where the connection economy is heading
If the swipe-era model is fading, what replaces it? The evidence points to a few directions.
From volume to compatibility
Products that help users find fewer, better matches, based on values, interests and intent, are outperforming those that maximise swipes. Hinge's growth is the clearest example in the data [4].
From romance to belonging
Friendship and community products are growing from a small base [8]. They address the larger and more universal need, and they can serve people at every life stage, not just those who are single.
From one-to-one to groups
Group formats, such as interest-based circles, events and shared activities, lower the pressure of first meetings and often lead to more lasting ties. The doubling of BFF group joins [8] suggests real demand.
From online to offline
The most valuable outcome of a connection product is people spending time together. Products that help users meet in person, safely and easily, address the decline in face-to-face time directly [10].
From paywalls to outcomes
Business models are likely to shift from charging for access, such as more likes or more visibility, towards charging for value, such as successful introductions, events or memberships in active communities.
The opportunity in fast-growing markets
The slowdown is concentrated in the mature markets where dating apps grew first. The WHO found that loneliness is roughly twice as common in low-income countries as in high-income ones, about 24% compared with 11% [9], and highest among young people. That combination, large young populations, rising smartphone use and high loneliness, makes emerging markets one of the most important frontiers for connection products. The products that succeed there are likely to look different: built for friendship and community as much as romance, priced for local incomes and designed for safety from day one.
What builders should measure
For anyone building in this space, the metrics that matter are changing:
| Old metric | Better metric |
|---|---|
| Swipes per day | Conversations that reach a meaningful exchange |
| Matches | Meetings, online or in person |
| Time in app | Repeat interactions with the same people |
| Paying users | Retention driven by real relationships |
The old metrics measure activity. The new ones measure connection.
The takeaway
The dating app slowdown isn't a sign that people want less connection. With loneliness affecting one in six people worldwide [9] and time with friends falling sharply [10], the demand is larger than ever. What's fading is a particular model: high-volume swiping, monetised through paywalls, aimed only at romance.
The growth is moving towards products built on intent, compatibility, friendship and real-world meetings. The next generation of connection companies will be judged not by how many people they keep swiping, but by how many relationships they help create.
References
[1] Stanford University. Online dating is the most popular way U.S. couples meet (on research by Rosenfeld, Thomas and Hausen, PNAS). 21 August 2019. https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2019/08/online-dating-popular-way-u-s-couples-meet
[2] Pew Research Center. Key findings about online dating in the U.S. 2 February 2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/02/02/key-findings-about-online-dating-in-the-u-s/
[3] Business of Apps. Dating App Revenue and Usage Statistics. Updated 11 June 2026. https://www.businessofapps.com/data/dating-app-market/
[4] Match Group. Match Group Announces Second Quarter Results. 4 August 2026. https://ir.mtch.com/investor-relations/news-events/news-events/news-details/2026/Match-Group-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/default.aspx
[5] TechCrunch. Coverage of Match Group Q4 2025 results. 4 February 2026. https://techcrunch.com
[6] Bumble Inc. Bumble Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results. 11 March 2026. https://ir.bumble.com/news/news-details/2026/Bumble-Inc--Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results/default.aspx
[7] Bumble Inc. Bumble Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results. 5 August 2026. https://ir.bumble.com/news/news-details/2026/Bumble-Inc--Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx
[8] TechCrunch. Coverage of Bumble BFF group growth. 5 May 2026. https://techcrunch.com
[9] World Health Organization. Social connection linked to improved health and reduced risk of early death. 30 June 2025. https://www.who.int/news/item/30-06-2025-social-connection-linked-to-improved-heath-and-reduced-risk-of-early-death
[10] US Department of Health and Human Services. Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation: The U.S. Surgeon General's Advisory. May 2023. https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/surgeon-general-social-connection-advisory.pdf